金融波动和区域经济增长是影响地方政府杠杆的重要因素吗?——基于区域结构视角的地方政府杠杆研究

Is financial volatility or regional economic growth an important factor affecting the leverage of local governments?——Study on the lever of local government from the perspective of regional structure

本文采用空间杜宾面板数据模型和空间回归模型偏微分方法对地方政府杠杆率、金融波动与区域经济增长之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明我国各地区政府杠杆率上升呈现出空间扩散趋势,经济增长和金融发展都能够降低地区政府杠杆率水平,而资本形成率则会提升政府杠杆率。上述结论的政策启示为:首先,稳增长的同时要建立地方政府债务风险预警机制,严控政府债务风险。其次要完善全口径的地方政府债务管理机制和创新政府融资路径和融资机制,最后亟待加大监管力度杜绝监管套利。

We estimate a SDM model to examine the relationship between local governments Leverage, financial fluctuation and regional economic growth. The results show as follow： China＇s regional government leverage has shown a trend of spatial diffu- sion, both economic growth and financial development can reduce regional government leverage, and the rate of capital forma- tion can increase regional government leverage. The above conclusions have some exact policy implications. First of all, Steady growth should establish a local government debt risk warning mechanism at the same time, strictly control the risk of government debt. Second, improve the local government debt management mechanism, and innovative government financing path and financing mechanism. Finally, increase supervision and prevent regulatory arbitrage.