权力转移理论与中美关系

The Power Transition Theory and Sino-U.S. Relations

冷战结束以来,中美之间经济的不平衡增长、中国综合国力和国际地位的不断提升以及美国整体实力的相对衰退显示中美之间开启了权力转移的漫长进程,使权力转移理论广泛应用于中美关系的学术研究中。参照中国的历史与文化、一贯的外交战略,以及中国对国际组织的参与度和对全球规范的遵守,可以看出作为一个成长的、保守的崛起国,中国一直是国际体系负责任的参与者和建设者,无意称霸世界。随着近年来中美两国合作领域的增多,合作程度的不断加深,两国能够维持一种相对稳定的良性竞争模式,使得中美之间的权力转移具有以和平方式实现的可能性。然而,两国间挥之不去的战略互疑和在多方面利益上的严重分歧为中美之间权力的和平转移蒙上阴影。

Since the end of the Cold War,the unbalanced economic growth between China and the United States,the continuous rise of China's overall national strength and international status,and the relative decline of the overall strength of the United States have shown that the long process of power transfer between China and the United States has begun,making the power transfer theory widely used in academic research on Sino-US relations.With reference to China's history and culture,consistent diplomatic strategy,and China's participation in international organizations and its compliance with global norms,we can see that as a growing and conservative rising country,China has always been a responsible participant and builder in the international system,with no intention of dominating the world.With the increase in the fields of cooperation between China and the United States in recent years and the deepened degree of their cooperation,the two countries can maintain a relatively stable model of benign competition,making it possible to transfer power between China and the United States in a peaceful manner.