高铁设站城市成长与区域联动发展动力学研究

A Kinetics Study of the Growth of High-speed Railway Cities and Coordinated Regional Development

在高铁时代，地级及以上城市成长动力充沛，中心城市向外围扩张的逻辑更趋清晰化。如果将高速铁路途经城市的站点建设视为外生冲击，就既能揭示城市规模扩张与政府官员执政的内生联动关系，又能识别高铁增长效应。高铁造城论丰富了城市规模扩张的动力机制研究内涵。研究发现，高铁设站的城市增长轨迹发生改变，行政、市场和交通三大力量能够解释不同规模等级城市的扩张机理和成长动力。在高铁联网时代，考虑到人口空间分布的不均衡及流向的不确定，城市政府势必考量自身在高铁建设中的联接时序，审慎评估高铁联通的时空效应，抓住发挥高铁增长效应的有利时机。

In the high - speech railway era, the growth of cities is full of momentum, and the logic of the expansion of central cit- ies to neighboring areas is clearer. By taking HSR construction as an exogenous shock, it not only reveals the linkage between city scales and government officials in office, but also can recognize the effect of high - speed growth. The idea that high - speed rail- ways create cities enriches the research meaning of the driving force behind the expansion of city scales. The conclusion is that high- speed railway cities＇ growth trajectories are subject to change. By using the three principles of administration, market and traffic, we can explain the mechanism of expansion and growth in cities of different scales. In the high - speed railway era, con- sidering the uncertainty in the distribution and flow of the population, city governments will consider the timing of high - speed railway construction, evaluate the spatial effect of high - speed railways, and seize the opportunity presented by these railways for growth.