金融扩张伤害实体经济了吗——基于两部门划分法的理论与实证分析

Has Financial Expansion Hurt the Real Economy:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on the Two-Sector Division Method

理论上,金融部门规模扩张存在最优路径和合理规模,其过度扩张会对实体经济产生不利影响。利用中国1998~2014年31个省(区、市)的省际数据,采用时变系数面板数据模型实证分析了金融扩张与实体经济关系,结果证实:金融部门确实存在最优规模,在2008年以前金融扩张对实体经济起促进作用,但之后转为长期抑制,不仅仅是在要素变动上带给实体部门挤出效应,还表现为降低了实体产出效率。此外,近年来实体部门资本边际产出逐渐递减接近于零,说明金融与实体的脱节与实体自身的生产率低下也有关系。

Theoretically, an optimal path exists for the financial sector, alongside a realistic seale of expansion. Excessive expansion of the financial sector tends to have a negative impact on the real economy. Using data from 31 Chinese provinces （ autonomous regions and municipalities） from 1998 to 2014, this study empirically analyzed the relationship between financial expansion and the real economy. The results confirmed that the financial sector had an optimal size. Moreover, the financial expansion prior to 2008 was found to have stimulated the real economy;however, expansion following 2008 was found to have a long-term suppressive effect on the real econo- my. In addition to the ＂crowding out＂ effect on the real economy ,financial expansion also reduces the efficiency of output. Furthermore, in recent years, the marginal output of capital of the real economy has been gradually driven towards zero, suggesting that the disconnection between the financial sector and the real economy is also related to the low productivity of the real economy.