低利率一定会推升通货膨胀吗——基于时间频率双尺度下连续小波变换的实证分析

Do Low Interest Rates Necessarily Stimulate Inflation:An Empirical Analysis of Continuous Wavelet Transform Patterns in Time and Frequency

基于中国1998年1月~2016年12月的月度数据,使用连续小波变换的方法对利率变动正负向影响物价水平的问题进行了实证分析。结果表明,短期来看,利率变动对通货膨胀的影响具有不确定性,反之通货膨胀是利率变动的原因,且中国货币政策的有效性表明其中蕴含了利率正向(负向)变动会导致通货膨胀负向(正向)变动的结论;长期来看,利率变动是通货膨胀率变动的原因,利率变动通过成本渠道传导产生供给面效应,正向(负向)的利率变动会引起通货膨胀正向(负向)变动。长期来看,维持较低利率水平并不会推升通货膨胀,通过降息方式降低企业融资成本、促进实体经济发展的货币政策和维持物价稳定的货币政策目标是不会相互冲突的。

Based on monthly interest rate data from between January 1998 and December 2016, this study applied the continuous wavelet transform method to empirically analyze the posi- tive and negative effects of changes in interest rates on price level. The results showed that, in the short term,inflation was the main cause of changes in interest rates. The effectiveness of China＇ s monetary policies implied that a positive （negative） change in interest rates tends to lead to a interest rates tends to cause a positive （negative） change in inflation. Maintaining a low interest rate, however, does not facilitate inflation in the long run. Therefore, a monetary policy that aims to use interest rate cuts to reduce corporate financing costs and promote the development of the real economy does not conflict with a monetary policy that aims to maintain stability in price levels.