数量型规则和价格型规则的最优组合研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Study on Optimal Combination of Quantity-Based and Price-Based Regulations:An Analysis Using the DSGE Model

随着经济环境的改变,单一的数量型规则和价格型规则货币政策工具均不足以维持和应对当前中国宏观经济的稳定发展。首先,结合数量型规则和价格型规则,构建了具有选择性特征的混合型货币政策规则,基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),采用校准和贝叶斯方法分别估计了数量型规则、价格型规则和混合型规则的参数;其次,采用脉冲响应分析、方差分解和社会福利损失比较数量型规则、价格型规则和混合型规则的政策适用性;最后,采用脉冲响应分析和社会福利损失,研究了数量型规则和价格型规则的最优组合。研究结果表明:央行实施混合型规则要优于数量型规则或价格型规则,混合型规能够更好地熨平宏观经济波动,并且改善社会福利的效果更明显;央行在实施混合型规则时,数量型规则和价格型规则的最优组合为:价格型规则权重维持在60%左右,数量型规则权重维持在40%左右,可以更好地熨平经济冲击带来的波动,减小社会福利损失,增加社会福利。

With the change of the economic environment, both quantitybased regulation and pric steady d ebased regulation used independently are insufficient to maintain and respond to the evelopment netary policy model of the macroeconomy in China. Therefore, this study constructed a hybrid mo- with selective features that combined both types of regulation. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model was adopted, and calibration and Bayesian proba- bility methods were applied to estimate the parameters of quantity-based regulation ,price-based regulation, and hybrid regulation. Next, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, and welfare loss were introduced to compare the political applicability of the three types of regulation. Impulse response and welfare losses were then used to explore the optimal combination of quantity -based and price-based regulation. The results suggested that central banks＇ implementation of hybrid regulation is superior to that of quantity-based and price-based regulation. Hybrid regulation was found to be beneficial in reducing the amplitude of macroeeonomic fluctuations, and its effect on improving social welfare was more pronounced. It was found that an optimal proportion of the quantity- based and pricebased regulations were approximately 40% to 60% ;as such, a combination of the two could minimize the fluctuations caused by economic shocks, reduce welfare losses, and improve social welfare.