全面抗战爆发后中共关于抗战胜利时间的估计及其变化

The CPC's Estimates of and Adjustments to the Time of Victory over Japan after the Full-scale Outbreak of the Resistance War

早在1935年12月,中共就认为中日战争将是一场持久的战争。全面抗战爆发后,中共坚持并强调了这一观点,1938年5月至6月毛泽东对此进行了完整阐述。1942年,由于国际反法西斯同盟的建立,苏美英协定1942年在欧洲大陆开辟第二战场,以及日军在战场上表现出了种种困难,同时为鼓舞人心、度过困难,中共提出"明年打败日本"的口号。1943年,由于欧洲战场第二条战线未能按时开辟,盟军不能在1942年结束欧洲战事,于是中共放弃了1943年打败日本的口号,重新估计为"作长期坚持打算"。1944年到1945年8月5日之前,由于国民党军队在豫湘桂会战中的大溃败,日本仍有部分实力准备与盟军顽抗到底,苏军要等到1945年7、8月才能出兵中国,美英对日战争进程的估计,以及中共接受了以前过分乐观的经验教训,中共估计"不会迅速胜利"。

As early as December of 1935, the Communist Party of China estimated that the war between China and Japan would be a protracted one. After the full-scale outbreak of the Resistance War, the CPC maintained and asserted this viewpoint. From May to June of 1938, Mao Zedong expounded elaborately on this estimate. In 1942, as the International Anti-Fascist Alliance was formed, and Japanese troops suffered setbacks on the battlefields, the CPC put forward the slogan ＂Defeat Japan next year＂, to inspire the Chinese people to overcome difficulties. In 1943, as the second battle front in Europe failed to be opened in time to end the war in Europe by 1942, the CPC gave up the slogan, reassessed the war and prepared for a prolonged fight. From 1944 to August 5th, 1945, on the basis of the facts that the Kuomintang troops were routed in the Battle of Henan-Hunan-Guangxi, the Japanese troops, still retaining some strength, would resist desperately to the end, the Soviet Union would not dispatch its troops to China until July or August, 1945, as well as the estimated progress in the war of Japan versus the US and the UK, the CPC learned a lesson from the previous overoptimistic estimate and concluded that the victory would not come soon.