基于风险评价的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性情景模拟——以重庆市巴南区为例

Simulation of utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides based on risk evaluation in Banan District of Chongqing

低丘缓坡土地开发是缓解用地压力、优化配置土地资源的有效途径,须在适宜性前提下进行以规避潜在风险。将有序加权平均方法(OWA)和GIS平台相结合,以重庆市巴南区为研究实例,从景观风险、社会风险和生态风险3个方面选取了11个指标构建了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价指标体系,模拟出5种政策情景下的开发建设适宜性情况。结果表明:随着决策风险系数α增大,全区低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性等级总体更高;不同政策情景下,研究区西部片区的适宜性情况总体优于东部片区,建成区周边区域的适宜性高于偏远区域,在非极端政策情景下,低丘缓坡土地适宜性分区相对破碎;在本轮土地利用总体规划期内,巴南区新增城镇用地布局主要分布在非低丘缓坡区域,对低丘缓坡土地开发建设布局的规划决策总体表现出较为谨慎和保守的态度。研究在一定程度上丰富了低丘缓坡土地适宜性评价的理论和方法,可为类似区域低丘缓坡土地资源利用与管理提供方法借鉴和实践支撑。

Utilizing gentle hillside areas is an effective way to alleviate land use pressure and optimize the allocation of land resources and avoid potential risks. In order to explore dynamic simulation to evaluate suitability of gentle hillsides under different policy scenario, promote scientific and rational use of gentle hillsides and reduce utilization risk, we studied Banan District in Chongqing. Eleven indices were selected to establish the evaluation index system representing landscape risk, social risk and ecological risk. Simulation results of the utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides under five policy scenarios were carried out based on OWA（ordered weighted averaging） and GIS（geographical information system） methods. With increasing α（the decision risk coefficient）, the level of utilization and construction suitability of gentle hillsides is higher. Suitability of the western part of the study area were overall better than that of the eastern part, while the suitability of areas around streets and towns were better than remote areas. Under non-extreme policy scenarios, suitability partition was more scattered. In the current period of land use planning, new urban construction land was mainly distributed in areas not comprised of gentle hillsides. Land use planning of gentle hillsides present a prudent and conservative attitude. To some extent, this research enriches the theory and methods of suitability evaluation of gentle hillside land. This work provides a reference and practice support for utilization and management of gentle hillsides in similar areas.