水资源-水环境阈值耦合下的水资源系统承载力研究

Carrying capacity of water resources system coupling water resources with water environment thresholds

水资源承载力研究对水资源可持续开发和合理规划意义重大。针对目前水资源系统承载力研究中存在研究重点考虑不足,研究方法存在误差等问题,以甘肃省17个流域为评价单元,从水资源和水环境的阈值入手,提出新的相对水资源承载力方法来量化研究区2015年、2020年、2030年的水资源系统承载力。结果表明:本研究所用的水资源系统承载力计算方法较现有的相对水资源承载力方法更符合实际;甘肃省大部分区域的水资源系统承载力呈超载状态,超载的流域集中在西北,不超载的流域集中在东南,承载力、承载规模和开发潜力均呈现东南高、西北低的分布格局;综合来看,河西内陆河流域和湟水流域不具备开发潜力,黄河干流区间和泾河流域开发潜力较小,嘉陵江、渭河、洮河、大通河流域水资源系统开发潜力最大,其他流域开发潜力居中;水资源对水资源系统综合承载力的影响较水环境更强;对比甘肃省水资源承载力评价结果和水资源系统开发潜力与水资源系统脆弱性评价结果,发现三者的分布格局基本吻合,这一现象揭示了三者之间的内在联系。研究结果可为区域水资源系统承载力计算,以及水资源合理规划和可持续开发利用提供科学依据。

Water resource carry capacity have great significance to the sustainable development of water resources and management. Current research methods in this field contain errors. Here, we adopted 17 basins in Gansu, China as an evaluation unit and developed a new carrying capacity of relative water resources method. Quantitative analyses for 2015, 2020 and 2030 water resource system carry capacity were done using a threshold value of water resources and water environments. We found that the calculation method of water resource system carry capacity is more consistent than current carrying capacity of relative water resources methods. Most area water resource system carrying capacity shows an overload state in Gansu. Overloaded river basins are concentrated in the northwest, non-overloaded river basins are concentrate in the southeast, The carrying capacity, load size and development potential all show a distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. On the whole, the river basin in the Hexi corridor and Huangshui basin do not have development potential; the Yellow River main stream and Jinghe development potential is smaller; Jialingriver, Weihe, Taohe and Datong river basin water resource system development potential is maximal; and other river basins are in the middle. Water resources have more powerful effects on water resource system comprehensive carry capacity than the water environment. We found that their distribution pattern is basically consistent after comparing the Gansu water resource system carry capacity results and development potential with other water resource system vulnerability evaluation results. These results provide a scientific basis for regional water resource system carrying capacity calculation, rational plan management and sustainable development