山东口岸马达加斯加鼠疫疫情风险评估

The risk assessment of plague epidemic imported from Madagascar to Shandong port

目的对马达加斯加鼠疫疫情输入山东口岸的风险开展风险评估,制定针对性的鼠疫疫情防控措施。方法运用专家会商法确定风险指标,采用风险矩阵法对山东口岸马达加斯加鼠疫疫情输入事件进行风险评估。结果通过综合分析世界卫生组织的疫情报告、鼠疫的病原学特点、山东口岸病媒生物分布情况、马达加斯加-中国航线情况、马达加斯加-山东航线情况和山东口岸基本情况,认为山东口岸鼠疫疫情发生可能性为3,鼠疫疫情发生的后果严重度为2,风险综合评价指数得分为6,为低风险等级,广泛可接受风险。结论山东口岸输入性鼠疫疫情的风险为低风险等级,但是鼠疫疫情传入的可能性仍然存在,需进一步做好疫情动态风险评估、强化口岸核心能力建设、做好应急储备工作、加强口岸检疫查验和宣传教育等措施,加强马达加斯加鼠疫疫情口岸防控工作。

Objective To evaluate the risk of plague epidemic imported to Shandong port,and to develop targeted measures for imported plague control. Methods The methods of expert consultation was used for risk indicator,risk matrix was used for risk assessment. Results The epidemic reports published by World Health Organization,the characteristics of plague,the distribution of medical vectors at Shandong port,as well as the routes information of Madagascar-China and Madagascar-Shandong had been analyzed. The score of plague possibility and severity was 3 and 2,respectively. The risk score was 6. The imported risk of plague was widely acceptable risk. Conclusion The risk of plague imported to Shandong port was low,but the possibility of transmission still existed. It is necessary to strengthen the successive risk assessment,the core capacities building,the emergency materials reserve,inspection and quarantine,and the publicity and education for prevention and control of plague imported from Madagascar.