此次美国加息周期中美元走势分析

Analyzing the US Dollar in Current Rate-Hike Cycle

文章回顾了过去30年里美国四次完整加息周期中全球金融市场的表现，重点对比此次加息与上一次加息周期（2004．04—2006．07）在宏观环境、美元大周期、加息步伐、美联储的引导力度、利率市场影响等方面的异同，并在此基础上探讨了美元指数未来的走势。

The paper reviews the financial market performance around the world during the US＇s four rate-hike cycles over the past 30 years, focusing on the comparison of the macro environment, the big US dollar cycles, the paces of the rate hikes, the Fed＇s guidance strength and the impacts on the interest rate market of the current and previous （2004.04-2006.07） rate-hike cycles. It then predicts the future movement of the U.S. dollar index based on the above discussions.