零利率约束下的货币政策目标框架调整

The Adjustment of Monetary Policy Framework under Zero Interest Rate Constraint

主要经济体均衡利率结构性下行，通胀目标制框架下，短期名义利率常触及零下限，制约了货币政策空间。货币政策框架的替代方案包括提高通胀目标、采用物价水平目标制和采用名义GDP目标制。文章分析了三种方案优劣，指出鉴于政策框架转变的不确定性，及可能引发长期通胀预期“脱锚”的风险，货币政策框架的调整应格外谨慎。

The major economies have seen structural downward equilibrium interest rates. Under the inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy, the short-term nominal interest rates often reach the zero bound which m ts the maneuvering room of the monetary policy. Alternative policy frameworks include raising the target inflation rate, adopting price level targeting or nominal GDP targeting. The paper analyzes the pros and cons of the three options, and points out that given the uncertainties in the adjustment of the policy framework and the risk of triggering the ＂de-anchoring＂ of long-term inflation expectations, the adjustment of monetary policy framework should be handled with extreme caution.