北京市残疾人预期寿命和退休年龄调整估算研究

Research on Life Expectancy and Retirement Age Adjustment for Persons with Disabilities in Beijing

利用北京市2012—2015年残疾人状况监测数据,结合文献报道的残疾人死亡水平,对北京市残疾人的预期寿命、健康工作预期寿命进行估算,并对分性别、分残疾类型的残疾人口预期寿命亚类进行分析,以期为全国其他地区残疾人口预期寿命研究及退休年龄的制定提供参考依据。结果显示,尽管女性残疾人的预期寿命高于男性,但是其健康工作预期寿命却远远低于男性,与现行的退休年龄比较,建议北京市男性残疾人口可提前8.7—10.4岁,女性可提前0.7—6.2岁退休。不论男性还是女性,各类残疾人口退休年龄均要提前,特别是精神残疾、智力残疾、肢体残疾人。对残疾人退休年龄政策要针对不同残疾类型、不同性别实行差异性弹性退休制度。分残疾类型来看,男性除视力残疾不提前,其余各类型残疾均建议提前退休,其中,精神残疾人提前10.6岁,智力、肢体残疾人提前5.6岁,言语和听力残疾人提前2—3岁;女性各类残疾人口退休年龄均提前,其中,智力残疾人提前11岁,视力和言语残疾人提前10.4岁,肢体残疾人提前9.4岁,精神残疾人提前8.3岁,听力残疾人提前7.3岁。退休年龄的制定需要多因素综合权衡,本研究只是根据已有数据给出了初步估算。加强残疾人死亡率研究,特别是婴儿和5岁以下儿童残疾状况和死亡水平的专项研究,加强围产期疾病在儿童致残原因和死亡原因中的研究,对于更好地制定残疾人相关的退休、社会保障政策等具有重要的现实意义。

Based on the surveillance data of persons with disabilities（PWD） in 2012—2015 in Beijing and the death rate of PWD reported in the literature, the life expectancy and healthy work life expectancy of PWD in Beijing were estimated. The overall life expectancy and life expectancy separated by sex, subtype of disability, were analyzed in order to provide reference for life expectancy study and retirement age adjustment for other provinces in China. Different calculation methods and hypothesis were used and results showed that although the life expectancy for female PWD was higher than male PWD, the healthy life expectancy is much lower than male. Compared with the current retirement age, it could be 8.7-14.6 years and 0.7-6.2 years earlier for male and female PWD of Beijing respectively. Regardless of male or female, the retirement age of all PWD could be advanced, especially for mental disability, intellectual disability, and physical disability. The retirement age policy for PWD could adopt different flexible retirement proposals according to gender, different types of disability and residence. For male, majority of PWD would advance retirement age except for the vision disabled. It would be 10.6 years earlier for mentally disabled, 5.6 years earlier for intellectual and physical disabled, 2-3 years earlier for speech and hearing disabled. For female, all PWD would advance. It would be 11 years earlier for intellectual disabled, 10.4 years earlier for vision and speech disabled, 9.4 years earlier for physical disabled, 8.3 years earlier for mental disabled and 7.3 years earlier for hearing disabled. The formulation of retirement age requires a comprehensive consideration and the current study only gives a preliminary estimate based on limited data. To strengthen the mortality study, especially for the infants and children under the age of 5, and to explore the role of perinatal diseases in the causes of disability and mortality would be beneficial for developing retirement and social security policy for persons with disabilities.