架空输电线路工程投资估算方法研究

Research on project investment estimation method for overhead transmission line

目前架空输电线路工程在可行性研究阶段依据预算定额估算工程投资,由于技术方案深度不够,定额的使用存在着不确定性,且存在工作量大与准确性低等弊端,开展架空输电线路工程投资估算的方法研究是十分必要的。根据架空输电线路工程的费用划分特点,对基础工程、杆塔工程、架线工程与附件工程分别进行整合,建立一套科学的投资估算指标框架,接着选取通用设计、限额设计、典型设计以及具有代表性的实际工程施工图数据作为样本,逐项测算投资估算指标的基价水平,按照各项估算指标的影响因素对样本数据进行统计分组,通过敏感性分析确定敏感性大的因素进行指标子目划分,形成了一套基价合理、结构科学的投资估算指标体系,最后对估算指标的运用及误差进行实证分析,结果表明采用架空输电线路工程投资估算指标测算的投资水平与实际工程审定概算的差异在5%以内,满足投资估算的精度要求,具有较高的准确性。

Currently, project investment is estimated for overhead transmission line project in the feasibility study stage according to the budget quota. Since the technical solution is not deep enough, and there is uncertainty in the use of quota. It has the defects of high workload, low accuracy, etc. It is very necessary to study the project investment estimation method for overhead transmission lines. The foundation engineering, tower engineering, wiring engineering attached engineering are respectively consolidated according to cost division characteristics of overhead transmission line engineering. A set of scientific investment estimation indicator framework is established. Next, general design, quota design, typical design and representative actual engineering construction drawing data are selected as samples. The base price level of investment estimation indicators are measured one by one, the sample data is statically grouped according to the factors affecting all estimation indicators. Factors with high sensitivity are determined through sen- sitivity analysis, and indicator subtitles are divided to form a set of investment estimation indicator system with reasonable base price and scientific structure. Finally, the application and errors of estimation indicators are empirically analyzed, the results show that the difference between overhead power transmission line project investment estimation indicator measurement investment level and actual project examination and approval budget estimate is controlled within 5%, thereby meeting the accuracy requirement of investment estimation with higher accuracy.