江苏省城乡建设用地经济密度的时空格局演变研究

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Dynamic Evolution of the Economic Density of Urban-rural Construction Land in Jiangsu Province

研究目的:分析江苏省2005—2015年间城乡建设用地经济密度的时空格局及动态演变特征,为提升城乡建设用地集约利用水平、优化用地与产业结构、改进土地利用政策等提供依据。研究方法:变异系数、泰尔指数、相对发展率和探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)。研究结果:(1)江苏省城乡建设用地经济密度总体呈增长态势,南北差异明显,高值点主要集中于苏锡常地区、南京市和南通市;(2)城乡建设用地经济密度空间离散程度不断下降,总体差异和区内区间差异呈现持续减小态势;(3)城市发展速度存在明显的时间阶段性与显著的空间分异特征;(4)各地级城市城乡建设用地经济密度呈现出显著的空间自相关,空间上存在明显的区域集聚特征,高值集聚主要在苏南和苏中地区,高值集聚中心由单个城市向城市连绵区方向发展,苏北地区一直表现为低值集聚。研究结论:城乡建设用地外延扩张和低效利用换取经济增长的粗放模式已无法适应发展要求,高效集约利用城乡土地才是保障经济发展的有效方式。

The purpose of the paper is to study the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution of the economic density of urban-rural construction land（URCL） in Jiangsu Province during 2005—2015. It can provide the scientific basis for optimizing industrial structure and raising the intensive use level of URCL. The methods employed include exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA） based on Moran＇s I exponent, coefficient of variation, Theil index and relative development rate. The results showed that： 1）the economic density of URCL in Jiangsu showed a general trend of increase, the difference between the north and the south was obvious, and the high value points were mainly concentrated in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, Nanjing and Nantong; 2）the degree of spatial dispersion of the economic density of URCL was decreasing, the general and regional internal disparities of URCL economic density were shrinking; 3）the speed of regional urban development exhibited obvious temporal variations, and the regional differences and spatial differentiation characteristics are significant; 4）the significant spatial auto-correlation existed in the distribution of economic density of URCL at city level in Jiangsu province, and the high-value clustering phenomenon mainly appeared in southern Jiangsu and middle Jiangsu, while the low-value clustering phenomenon appeared in northern Jiangsu, and the high value clustering phenomenon developed from single city to urban contiguous areas. In conclusion, the sprawl and inefficient use of URCL are unable to meet the requirement of current social-economic development, and the intensive use of URCL is an effective way to promote economic development.