基于生存分析的翠冠梨货架期病害发病规律研究

Study on the Occurrence Regularity of Cuiguan Pear Diseases during Shelf Life Based on Survival Analysis

以翠冠梨为试材,记录其货架期发病个数和发病时间,观察病害种类及其症状,采用KaplanMeier生存分析,并进行Log-Rank检验,研究采摘期和低温贮藏对翠冠梨货架期病害发病规律的影响。结果表明,翠冠梨采后货架期间极易发生病害,以轮纹病的危害最为严重,黑斑病和褐腐病次之;采摘期和出库时间对翠冠梨货架期平均发病时间的影响都存在着显著性差异(P<0.05);采摘期越晚,货架期发病时间越早,晚采收1 d,其货架期平均发病时间提前0.248 d;出库时间越晚,货架期发病时间越早,多贮藏1 d,其货架期平均发病时间提前0.050 4 d,低温贮藏对平均发病时间的影响约为采摘期的1/5。因此,翠冠梨应"适时早采+低温贮藏",并注意适时出库,可以更好地控制病害发生,延长货架期,保持商品性。

Taking Cuiguan pear as materials, effects of different picking times and low temperature storage on the occurrence regularity of Cuiguan pear diseases during shelf life was studied. The number and time of rotten fruits were recorded, and the main infectious disease types and symptoms were observed, survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis, comparison among groups was analyzed using Log-Rank test. The results showed that, the postharvest Cuiguan pear was prone to rotten diseases during shelf life, among which the ring rot was the most destructive disease, and then followed by black spot and brown rot. There were significant differences of different picking times and stopping storage times on the mean disease occurrence time of Cuiguan pear during shelf life（P〈0.05）. The later picking time, the earlier occurrence time during shelf life, the mean disease occurrence time was about 0.248 d earlier if picking 1 d later; the longer low temperature storage time, the earlier occurrence time,the mean disease occurrence time was 0.050 4 d earlier if storing 1 more day. The effect of low temperature storagetime was about 1/5 of picking time. Therefore, ‘earlier picking in good time and low temperature storage＇ combined with stopping storage at appropriate time could better control diseases occurrence, prolong shelf life, and keep commodity value of Cuiguan pear.