人力资本影响出口比较优势变动的行业差异与门槛估计

Industrial Differences and Threshold Estimation of Effects of Human Capital on Changes of Export Comparative Advantages

采用我国制造业13个行业1992-2015年的面板数据,并运用面板格兰杰因果关系方法和面板门槛模型,实证检验人力资本影响出口比较优势变动的行业差异与门槛效应,其研究结果发现:人力资本对出口比较优势变动的影响存在着显著的行业差异。在13个行业中,只有电器机械及器材制造业的人力资本与出口比较优势存在双向格兰杰因果关系;在纺织服装、鞋帽制造业、家具制造业、橡胶制品业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、金属制品业以及专用设备制造业中仅存在着人力资本对出口比较优势的单向因果关系。进一步说,研发人员数量对行业出口比较优势存在单一门槛效应。在单一门槛值之下,无论行业研发人员绝对数量还是相对数量都对出口比较优势提升具有显著正向影响。但是超过门槛值之后,无论行业研发人员绝对数量还是相对数量都对出口比较优势提升的影响不显著。基于以上研究结论,提出相应的政策建议。

This paper uses the panel data of 13 manufacturing industries in China from 1992 to 2015 and applies the panel Grainger causality method and panel threshold model to test the industrial differences and the threshold effect of human capital on the changes of export comparative advantages.The results show that there are significant industrial differences in the effect of human capital on the changes of export comparative advantages. Among the 13 industries,a two-way Grainger causal relationship only exists in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry while there is a one-way Grainger causal relationship between human capital and the export comparative advantages in the industries of textile and apparel,footwear and headwear,furniture,rubber products,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, metal products and equipment for special purposes.Furthermore,there is a single threshold effect on the number of RD personnel. Below the single threshold value,both the absolute number and the relative number of RD personnel have significant positive effect on upgrading the export comparative advantages. Once beyond the single threshold value,neither the absolute number nor the relative number of RD personnel has significant effect on export comparative advantages. The paper ends with some valuable corresponding policy suggestions.