从供求关系角度看科举的出路拥堵问题及近代废科举的意外后果

Congestion of the Way Out for Imperial Examinations and the Unintended Consequences of the Abolition of Imperial Examinations from the Perspective of Supply and Demand

从供给侧来看,科举考试的开放性、公平性以及诱人前景使应考群体庞大。从需求侧来看,科考的录取数量受限于官僚系统更新换代的速率。从供求之间的动态关系来看,在王朝生命周期内,随着供给侧越来越膨胀,需求侧却越来越吃紧。人才供给远远大于官僚机构的有效需求,供求失衡使科举出路非常狭窄和拥堵。传统社会一方面通过考试竞争将大量士子淘汰下来,另一方面通过多种途径大量吸纳安置后备士子,缓解出路拥堵带来的压力。清末科举制度变革适逢古今中西交汇碰撞之际,废科举的制度设计是以学堂取士取代科举取士,这种"错位嫁接"的改革方式打破了传统的稳态,使供求失衡问题在短期内爆发出来,引发了重要的意外后果。改革者在认知上的偏差和中西社会结构的差异是导致科举改革产生重要意外后果的基本原因。

From the supply side,the openness,fairness and attractive prospect of imperial examinations expand the examination population. From the demand side,the amount of enrollment subjects to the upgrading speed of the bureaucratic system. From the dynamic relationship between supply and demand and within the dynastic life cycle,as the supply side expands larger,the demand side becomes harder pressed. Talent supply is far greater than the effective demand of the bureaucratic organizations. Thus,the imbalance between supply and demand makes the way out for imperial examinations very narrow and congested. The traditional society,on the one hand,eliminated a large number of scholars through examination competitions; on the other,it adopted many kinds of ways to find places to reserve scholars so as to ease the pressure of congestion. The reform of imperial examination system in the late Qing Dynasty coincided with the collision between the ancient and the modern,between China and the West. The system design of the abolition of the imperial examinations was based on the replacement of imperial examinations by setting up schools. This ＂ wrongly grafted ＂ reform broke the traditional steadiness and worsened the imbalance between supply and demand,thus causing critical unintended consequences. The cognitive bias of the reformers and the differences in the social structure between China and the West were two fundamental causes of the unintended consequences of the reform.