中国二氧化碳影子价格估算及与交易价格差异分析——基于二次型方向性距离产出函数

Estimation of China’s Carbon Dioxide Shadow Price and Analysis of the Difference in Transaction Price: Output Function Based on Quadratic Directional Distance

二氧化碳影子价格从理论上能反映企业碳排放边际减排成本,是碳交易模型中的均衡成交价格,但以往研究影子价格测算结果均与实际交易价格存在较大差异。文章采用二次型方向性距离产出函数,进一步对考虑能源结构和产业因素下的二氧化碳省域影子价格进行测算,以求更符合实际,并将结果与实际交易价格比对。实证结果表明：第一,不同地区、不同能源结构和产业结构的二氧化碳影子价格均存在较大差异;第二,交易试点影子价格与交易价格也存在较大差异,价格之差主要源于行业覆盖、碳配额发放制度和交易政策引导差异。为有效控制我国二氧化碳排放总量,未来应加快建立全国性碳交易市场,鼓励碳交易,并在建设推进中充分考虑地方性产业及能源差异。

Carbon dioxide shadow prices can theoretically reflect the marginal cost of carbon emissions, which is the equilibrium transaction price in carbon trading model, but there is a big difference between previous study estimate prices and the actual transaction prices. In this paper, the quadratic directional distance output function is used to further evaluate the price of carbon dioxide restricted energy structure and industrial factors in order to be more realistic, and then compare the results with the actual transaction price. The empirical results show that： first, different regions, different energy structure and industrial structure leads to different carbon dioxide shadow prices; second, the transaction price of the pilot shadow and the transaction price are also different. The price difference is mainly due to industry coverage, carbon quota issuance system and trade policy guidance differences. In order to effectively control the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions in China, the government should speed up the establishment of a national carbon trading market, encourage carbon transactions, and in the construction of the full consideration of local industries and energy differences.