环境污染水平与经济发展水平对就业的影响研究——基于就业规模和就业结构视角

The Influence Study on the Level of Environment Pollution and the Level of Economic Development to Employment: Based on the Employment Scale and the Employment Structure

利用中国1983—2015年的时间序列数据,构建计量实证模型,采用较为前沿的时间序列数据分析方法,深入研究环境污染水平对就业规模和就业结构的影响。研究结论有：第一,环境污染水平对就业规模的影响整体上呈倒＂U＂型,即随着环境污染的加剧,就业规模先下降后上升,但环境污染水平对不同产业的就业人数表现出明显的差异性,其中,第一产业和第三产业的就业人数下降,第二产业的就业人数上升,在一定程度上反映出环境污染主要来源于第二产业;第二,环境污染水平对就业结构的影响是不合理的,随着环境污染的加剧,第二产业就业人数增加,第三产业就业人数减少,就业结构向第二产业集中,导致就业结构的转变不合理;第三,随着经济发展水平的提高,就业规模会逐渐提高,其中,第三产业就业规模的提高幅度最大,促使就业结构逐渐向第三产业转变,使得就业结构趋于合理化。

This paper builds econometric empirical model using China＇s 1983-2015 time series data, adopting the method of time series data of frontier to further study the influence of environmental pollution on employment scale and employment structure. Research conclusions are as follows： First, the influence of environmental pollution level on the scale of employment overall assumes as an inverted ＂U＂, namely with the enhance of environmental pollution, and the employment scale down first and then rises; But the influence of environmental pollution level on different industries＇ employment showed obvious differences, among them, the primary industry and tertiary industry employment has declined, the employment of secondary industry has risen, to a certain extent, environmental pollution is mainly derived from the secondary industry. Second, the influence of environmental pollution on employment structure is not reasonable, with the enhancement of environmental pollution, the employment in secondary industry increases and the tertiary industry decreases. Employment structure is concentrated in secondary industry, and it lead to the unreasonable transformation of employment structure. Third, with the improvement of economic development, employment scale will be gradually improved, with the biggest increase of the tertiary industry employment scale. It makes the employment structure transform to the tertiary industry gradually, and brings employment structure to be rationalized.