中美两国市场波动的非对称性——基于双边金融关系再平衡的视角

The Asymmetry of Sino-U.S.Market Fluctuation:From the Perspective of the Rebalancing of Bilateral Financial Relationship

在后危机时代,中美两国金融交往的角色和地位导致中国经济在外部冲击之下面临着很大的波动性和不确定性。基于此,通过一个标准的两国动态随机一般均衡模型,对中美两国市场波动的非对称性进行判断,即利用货币政策冲击、金融市场冲击以及技术冲击,考察中国与美国的产出和投资水平受到对方国家外部冲击的影响。脉冲响应结果显示,来自美国的冲击对中国的产出和投资市场具有显著的作用;而来自中国的冲击对美国宏观经济的作用则十分微弱。在此基础上,引入中美金融关系再平衡的趋势,再次通过以上三种外部冲击,验证这一再平衡趋势对市场波动非对称性的缓解作用。结果显示,中美金融关系再平衡的过程将在一定程度上降低两国市场波动的非对称性,并有利于推动中美两国成为更加实质性的经济合作伙伴。

In the post-crisis era, the role and status of the financial relationship between China and the United States lead to China facing great volatility and uncertainty. This article analyzes the asymmetry of the market fluctuation between the two countries through a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, using monetary policy impact, financial market impact,and technology impact to investigate the level of output and investment under the external shocks from the other country. According to the impulse response, the impact from the United States has significant effects on output and investment market in China;however the effect on the United States is very weak. On this basis,we introduce the trend of the rebalancing of financial relationship,and verify the relief of the asymmetry under the rebalancing trend,with the same three kinds of external shocks. According to the results, the process of rebalancing will reduce the asymmetry of the fluctuation of the two countries to a certain extent, and is conducive to promoting the two countries being economic partner more substantially.