我国进口液化天然气(LNG)价格传导机制研究

The Research on the Transmission Mechanism and Effect of International Gas Price Fluctuation on China's Price Level——Through the channel of China's import LNG

随着我国天然气行业市场化改革的不断进行及国际市场的影响,进口LNG价格对我国物价水平的影响越来越大。本文利用2010年1月-2017年1月月度数据,通过构建VAR模型,实证分析了进口LNG价格传导机制及其效应。结论表明:进口LNG价格可间接影响我国物价水平,作用时滞为4-6个月;我国物价水平能够影响国际天然气价格,但是我国进口LNG价格却不能直接影响国际天然气价格。基于以上结论,本文对推进我国天然气市场化改革以及建立国际化的天然气交易中心提出建议。

With the continuous development of China＇s natural gas market reform and the impact of international market change, the effect of international gas price fluctuation on China＇s price level is increasing. Based on the monthly data of 1-2010 to 1-2017, this paper empirically analyzes the transmission mechanism and effect of international gas price fluctuation on China＇s price level through LNG channel by constructing VAR model. The conclusions are as follows：1. The international gas price doesn＇t affect China＇s price level directly, but indirectly by the channel, international gas price→ LNG price→ index of raw material and fuel→ production price index→ China＇s price level, and the lag of effect is 6 to 9 months;2.China＇s price doesn＇t affect international gas price reversely through the channel, the reason may be that China＇s free gas market is still in shaping;3.China＇s price level can affect international gas price, but China＇s import LNG price doesn＇t affect international gas price, this indicates that China doesn＇t have the power to make an international gas price compared to other big countries like US,UK and Russia;4.The effect of international gas price fluctuation on China＇s economy： consumption areaproduction areacirculation area.