对我国房价波动的惯性趋势研究

Analysis on the Rising of Housing Price under the View of Inertial

本文主要从价格惯性视角,分析我国房价波动的惯性趋势,对于房地产市场后市判断以及政策调控的制定与实施具有重要的现实意义。本文通过IMS-AR模型的研究发现:整体以及各级城市房价的上涨惯性较强,各级城市房价表现出显著地辐射联动式的涟漪效应;房价上涨基础需进一步稳固,景气状况分析表明中国房价上涨惯性存在被打破的可能,三线城市的房地产市场风险初露端倪;以往调控政策并没有达到预期效果,今后政策重心当以市场普遍预期的引导与稳定为主,并渐进式的推进房价双向波动的市场机制改革,即在牢牢守住不诱发系统性风险的底线下,保持房价波动趋势的平稳转换。

Under the context of economic slowdown, whether the inertia of rising house prices can maintain or not is important for China to achieve the relatively stable economic growth shift, but the higher prices inertia, that house price continues to rise,will reduce the quality of economic growth, and damage the national economic security.Through the IMS-AR model, the study found that, the inertia of overall and urban housing prices at all levels are strong, and urban housing prices at all levels show a significant radiation ripple effects; the basis for housing prices need to be further strengthened, booming situation analysis shows that the possibility of China＇s housing prices inertia going up tends to be broken, and the real estate market risk of third-tier cities come into sight gradually; previous regulatory policies did not achieve the desired results, future policy focus should be on the guide and stability of market expectation generally, and gradually promote the two-way price fluctuations in the market mechanism reform,which means that the trend of rising housing prices must be inhibited in a firm hold of the bottom line, that is not induced systemic risk.