经济负债、金融稳定与明斯基周期

ECONOMIC DEBT,FINANCIAL STABILITY AND MINSKY CYCLES

我国是否逼近"明斯基时刻"成为当前经济关注的热点。本文首次基于明斯基周期核心理论"金融不稳定假说",构建投资负债系统模型,应用面板VAR模型,从公司层面实证研究我国经济是否存在明斯基周期。研究结果表明,我国经济主体负债率在经济扩张期呈现显著的逆周期性,负债对投资的负向影响在经济扩张期表现最为显著,上述两点结论与明斯基"金融不稳定假说"的核心观点相冲突,说明根植于西方自由金融市场土壤的明斯基周期理论并不适用于我国。但值得注意的是,由于我国当前阶段也存在"金融拖拽效应",在当前宏观经济政策中要进一步明确去杠杆的重要性。

It has become a hot spot in current economic concern whether China is approaching ＂Min- sky moment＂. Based on the core theory of Minsky cycles ＂financial instability hypothesis＂, by the con- struction of investment-liabilities system model, using the panel VAR model from the company level, this paper empirically studies whether there exists Minsky cycle in China＇s economy. The results show that, leverage is the inverse business cyclical, and debt has the most significantly negative effect on in- vestment in the period of economic expansion, which are both conflict with the core view of Minsky＇s fi- nancial instability hypothesis, which is rooted in western liberal financial markets and is not applicable in China. But the current stage of Chinese market has the financial trails effect. The importance of deleveraging should be much focused on in the current macroeconomic policies.