我国体育产业发展方式转变中的路径依赖及对策研究

Path Dependence and Countermeasures in Transformation of Sports Industry Development Pattern in China

体育产业演变推进是一个动态化过程,冲突机理复杂性特征极为明显,路径依赖则是体育产业发展方式复杂性特点的集中体现。研究发现,我国体育产业发展方式呈现出产业结构严重失衡、创新驱动缺乏活力、企业规模相对较小、空间布局不尽合理、消费驱动仍显疲软、营利水平普遍较低等粗放型特征,形成了较强的路径依赖。演化博弈模型分析显示:市场化是体育产业发展方式转变的重要动力,内部制度驱动主要行为主体相向推进体育产业市场化的程度突破鞍点临界值,同步倾向于选择推进市场化制度,有利于摆脱路径依赖的闭锁约束;而相关利益集团干预是体育产业发展方式转变的主要阻力,外部制度驱动主要行为主体很难达到和谐的一致性,相关利益集团的持续干预则推动体育产业顺着低效路径持续下滑,甚至被锁定在某种无效率的状态之中。认知层面、体制层面和垄断层面的路径依赖形成的多重叠加渗透压力,从而导致体育产业内外制度路径依赖的约束呈现一定的交织,推高了体育产业发展方式的转换成本和跨越难度。破解体育产业发展方式转变的制度路径依赖,需要从破除旧念激活力、简政放权破阻力和激发市场主体释动力等入手,精准发力、精准施策,逐步推动体育产业发展方式实现转型升级。

Evolution of the sports industry is a dynamic process with apparent characteristic of conflict mechanism complexity,which is mainly embodied by path dependence. Study showed that sports industry development pattern in China displayed extensive operation characteristics of serious imbalance of industrial structure,lack of vitality in innovation impetus,relatively small enterprise scale,improper spatial distribution,fatigue consumption drive,and widespread low profit etc,which contributed to strong road dependence. Through evolutionary game model analysis,marketization was an important driving force for transformation of sports industry development pattern. The internal system drove main actors top romote marketization of the sports industry to break through the critical value of the saddle point,with simultaneous preference for marketization system promotion,which would help to get rid of the locking constraints of path dependence. Meanwhile,intervention of related interest groups was the main obstacle to transformation of sports industry development pattern. External system drove it difficult for main actors to achieve the harmonious consistency and continuous intervention of related interest groups resulted in continuous decline of sports industry along inefficient path and even being locked in a state of no efficiency. The multiple superposition and infiltration pressures formed by path dependence of cognitive level,system level,and monopoly level led to a certain interweaving of the constraints on the path dependence of the system inside and outside the sports industry,which drove up the transformation cost and crossing difficulty of sports industry development pattern. To solve the system path dependence of transformation of sports industry development pattern,it is necessary to start from stimulating vitality through abolishing stereotypes,breaking through resistance by streamlining administration and instituting decentralization and stimulate market main actors＇ impetus power with accurate delivery of force and precise implementation of policies to gradually promote realization of transformation and upgrading of sports industry development pattern.