新疆库尔勒断层氢气浓度的影响因素及其地震预测的潜在效能评价

The Influential Factors of Fault Hydrogen Concentration and the Potential Efficiency Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction in Korla,Xinjiang

以库尔勒断层H_2观测数据为研究对象,通过计算气压、气温与断层H_2浓度间的相关系数,分析了断层H_2浓度动态变化的影响因素,并利用Molchan图表法对断层H_2浓度映震效能进行检验,进而定量化地提取预测指标。结果显示:(1)气压和温度对库尔勒断层H_2浓度的变化有影响,表现为气压与断层H_2浓度呈正相关,相关系数为0.6735,温度与断层H_2浓度呈负相关,相关系数为-0.4262,气压对断层H_2浓度变化影响较大,温度影响较小;(2)Molchan图表法的库尔勒断层H_2浓度变化与地震间关系的检验结果反映出该测点断层H_2浓度映震效果较好,且地震预测优势对应时段为2个月内,最佳阈值为0.3392×10^(-6),该值可作为库尔勒断层H_2浓度在相对应的时间段内地震活动异常的判别指标,为震情判定提供参考依据。

Based on fault hydrogen observation data in Korla,this paper studied the influence of atmospheric pressure and temperature on the change of fault hydrogen concentration by calculating the correlation coefficient between atmospheric pressure and temperature and fault hydrogen concentration. The Molchan chart method is used to test the seismic reflection efficiency of fault hydrogen and then to extract the prediction index quantitative. The study results show that：（1）Both atmospheric pressure and temperature has an influence on the change of fault hydrogen concentration,and there is a positive correlation between the atmospheric pressure and the fault hydrogen concentration. The correlation coefficient is 0.6735,and the temperature is negatively correlated with the fault hydrogen concentration. The correlation coefficient is-0.4262. The atmospheric pressure has an influence on the hydrogen concentration in the fault,and the temperature has little influence on the hydrogen concentration in the fault.（2）The test results of the fault hydrogen concentration and the earthquake-reflecting ability of Korla in the Molchan chart show that the seismic reflection effect of the fault hydrogen in Korla is better. The corresponding time interval of the earthquake prediction advantage interval is 2 months,and the optimal threshold is 0.3392×10^-6. This value can be used as an seismic anomaly discrimination index of the fault hydrogen in Korla in the corresponding time.