国外对华实施反倾销调查的影响因素研究——兼论中国贸易政策与外资政策的协调

Determinants of Foreign Countries' Anti-dumping Investigation against China: Balancing Trade and Foreign Investment Policies of China

采用1990~2014年国外对华反倾销调查数据,利用面板数据的负二项回归模型对国外对中国实施反倾销措施的经济、制度和策略等影响因素进行分析与实证研究,同时纳入中国外资政策和贸易政策因素的影响,讨论中国在政策协调方面的作用和应对途径。研究结论表明,当中国的产品对国外市场形成较高的进口渗透时,会明显招致该国更多的反倾销调查;当中国成为国外依赖的重要出口市场时,则会导致该国显著降低对华实施的反倾销调查数量;相比其他国家,美国、印度、欧盟、巴西等国会让中国遭受更多的反倾销调查;当中国对外实施反倾销调查作为贸易政策无法有效遏制国外对华反倾销时,通过调整外资政策,吸引更多的外商直接投资,可以显著抑制国外对华实施反倾销调查。

This paper uses the data of foreign countries＇ anti-dumping filings against China during the period 1990-2014, to empirically analyze the determinants of foreign countries＇ anti-dumping investigations against China, including economic, institutional, and strategic factors, as well as China＇s foreign investment and trade policy factors, via a Negative Binomial Regression Model with panel data, and to discuss policy coordination and responses of China. The results show that： when foreign countries have trade deficit with respect to China,they would launch more anti-dumping filings against China; when China＇s exports become important to foreign countries, these countries would significantly reduce the number of anti-dumping filings against China; compared with the rest of the world, countries including U.S., India, European Union, Brazil, etc., tend to initiate more anti-dumping investigations against China than others; when China cannot effectively reduce the number of anti-dumping investigations from foreign countries by launching anti-dumping filings against them as China＇s trade policy, it can significantly reduce the number of anti-dumping filings against China by adjusting its foreign investment policy to attract more foreign direct investment.