全球价值链嵌入下“一带一路”沿线国家产业转移研究——基于世界投入产出模型的测度

Research on Industrial Transfer among Countries along “Belt and Road” under Background of Global Value Chain——Based on World Input-Output Model

以"全球价值链嵌入"和"一带一路"倡议为时代背景,以沿线国家"产业时空转移"为核心主线,利用世界投入产出表中区域最终需要变化建立产业净转移指标,以此刻画沿线主要地区、国家之间分时段、分产业的产业转出与转入。研究发现,"一带一路"沿线代表性国家在参与全球价值链分工过程中,从整体产业的时空转移格局来看,各国均表现为明显的增长态势。各国主要产业的净转入与净转出程度与转移对象国的表现差异较大。产业转移表现为规模化、多元化与逆梯度产业转移的趋势。

Under the background of＂Global Value Chain＂and the＂Belt and Road＂ initiative, this paper aims to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of industrial transfer among the countries participating in the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative. The World Input-Output Tables（WIOT）are used here to establish the net transfer index to test the relationship of outward and inward industrial transfer among the major participating countries and regions. The results demonstrate that the representative countries show a significant growth trend from the perspective of the overall industrial transfer. While there are great differences in the degree and the performances of net inward and outward transfer in the target countries.Furthermore, the industrial transfer has been observed in the characteristics of large-scale trend, diversification and inverse gradient trend.