地方政府房地产限购限贷限售政策的效应评估

Policy Evaluation of Local Government Real Estate Market Regulation based on Restriction of Purchase, Loan and Sale

对2008~2017年热点城市房地产调控政策对房价的影响进行的实证分析表明,房贷利率提高1个百分点,在当月即能降低房价增速2.86个百分点,效果在8个月后达最强,20个月后失效;首付比例要求提升10个百分点后,2个月即可降低房价增速0.62个百分点,在4个、7个季度后分别达到最强效果和失效;限售强度提高1档,会在3个、4个月后显著降低房价增速0.8~1.2个百分点。限购强度提高1档,在14个月后才能降低房价增速0.5个百分点,在16个、24个月时分别最有效和失效;人均供地增加10%,18个月后才可稍微抑制房价增速,在30个、38个月时分别最有效和失效。

Based on the empirical research of the real estate market regulation policy effect on house price in hot cities from 2008 to 2017, we find 1 percent housing loan rate raise can reduce house price growth rate by 2.86 percent at the same month, the effect reach the strongest after 8 months and lose efficacy after 20 months. 10 percent raise of down-payment ratio can reduce 0.62 percent of house price growth rate after 2 months, the effect get strongest after 4 quarters and vanish after 7 quarters. When sale restriction reinforce 1 level, the house price growth rate will significantly decrease by 0.8 ~1.2 percent in 3 ~4 months. When purchase restriction reinforce 1 level, the house price growth rate can only decrease after 14 months by 0.5 percent, the effect get strongest and vanish after 16 months and 24 months. Lastly, 10% increase of land supply per capita will take effect after 18 months by weakly control house price growth, which reach strongest and vanish after 30 months and 38 months.