国家中心城市建设能促进区域协同增长吗

Can National Central Cities Construction Promote Regional Coordinated Growth?

国家中心城市建设影响区域协同增长的效果究竟如何,是一个值得深入探究的问题。本文采用1995—2015年中国289个地级市的样本数据,运用合成控制法分别检验了2010年开始实施的国家中心城市建设对其周边区域和整体区域协同增长的影响,并运用安慰剂法、置换检验法对上述结果进行了有效性和稳健性检验。基于此,进一步从降低交易成本、人口流动和市场开放三个方面机制重点剖析了国家中心城市建设促进区域协同增长的内在机理。结论表明：2010年起实施的国家中心城市建设对区域协同增长具有显著的促进作用。从不同层面来看,国家中心城市建设对其周边区域和整体区域协同增长均具有显著的促进作用。内在机理考察发现,国家中心城市建设通过降低交易成本或增强市场开放促进区域协同增长产生效果显著;通过降低交易成本、人口流动和市场开放的共同作用可以显著促进区域协同增长,但通过人口流动的作用效果不佳。

Under the double background of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategy of implementing regional coordinated development and ＂National Urban System Planning＂ had been implemented for nearly eight years. How did the effect of the national center cities construction on the regional coordinated growth？ It’s a question worth exploring deeply. Taking the sample data of 289 prefecture-level cities in China in1995-2015. This paper re-checked and compared the influence on the coordinated growth of the national center cities’ surrounding area and the whole region after construction of the national central cities that began in 2010 using Synthetic Control Methods, what’s more, in order to make sure the validity and robustness of the results, we then used placebo test to make sure the validity results and adopted replacement test for the robustness test. Based on this, the paper analyzed the internal mechanism of the regional coordinated growth of national center cities from the three aspects of reducing transaction cost, population mobility and market openness. The results showed that： The construction of national central cities that began in 2010 had a significant effect on regional cooperative growth. At different levels, the construction of national center cities had a significant effect on the coordinated growth of national center cities’ surrounding area and overall region. The internal mechanism investigation found that the construction of the national center cities had a remarkable effect through reducing transaction cost or enhancing the market opening to promote regional coordinated growth; regional coordinated growth can be significantly enhanced by reducing transaction costs, population mobility, and market openness; but the poor by migration effects, on the one hand, inhibition of the national center cities construction to promote coordinated growth of surrounding area, on the other hand, on the whole regional coordinated growth promoting effect was not significant. The conclusion of this paper has some guiding significance for the construction of China’s national center cities, the implementation of regional coordinated development strategy and the realization of regional economic integration.