户籍门槛是否阻碍了城市化?——基于空间异质效应模型的分析

Dose Household Registration Threshold Affect City Urbanization?——Based on the Spatial Heterogeneity Effect Model

户籍是识别中国人口与城市发展问题不可绕过的主题。从户籍转化率视角,利用最近两次人口普查(五普、六普)长表数据抽取285个地级市市辖区户籍、常住和外来人口信息,匹配中国城市统计年鉴数据构建了空间异质GWR模型,探讨了中国户籍门槛与城市化的关系。结果表明,户籍门槛阻碍流动人口融入城市,对城市化形成制约;在呈现对人力资本的筛选的同时,户籍门槛也会抑制潜在人力资本积累而抑制城市化;地级城市空间分异性显著,高低不同的户籍门槛在不同城市形成差异效应,并具有多渠道性。合理布局、健康有序的推进城市化,需以"因地制宜"的户籍身份转换为引导方向。

Hukou is an essential issue to identify the interaction of people and urban development. This paper, in aspect of household conversion ratio, empirically tested the relationship between China＇ s household registration threshold and urbanization,by implying spatial heterogeneity model, GWR, bsaed on a sample of 285 prefecture cities drawing from China Population Census 2000 and 2010. Results show that, high threshold has negative effect on urbanization by holding people back from floating into the city;the threshold will have a positve affect on urban development by identifying migrantion with high ability, but will also, slow dowm the speed of urbanization by inhibiting potential human capital accumulation;cities are differ across space, and will be of significant unstationary in aspect of household threshold＇ s effect on urbanization, with multi - channels. Thus, to have a reasonablly layouted and healthy urbanization, let a discrepant way of household conversion across city be the guiding direction is needed.