“老漂族”长期定居意愿研究——基于成功老龄化的框架

Research on Old Floating People Long-term Settle Willingness——Based on Successful Aging

基于成功老龄化的框架,定量分析老年流动人口长期定居意愿的现状及影响因素,并探求其内在的影响机制。将成功老龄化分解为经济因素、社会融入因素和健康因素三个维度,以老年流动人口长期定居意愿为因变量,基本人口特征、人口流动特征为控制变量,逐层纳入经济因素、社会融入因素和健康因素作为自变量,构建三个多变量的回归模型。实证结果与三个假设基本吻合:老年流动人口长期定居意愿与经济因素、社会融合因素、健康因素均存在显著相关性,经济宽裕、积极参与社交活动、身体健康的老年流动人口在当地长期定居的意愿更强;分流动原因、分户籍进行了稳健性检验。分样本回归估计结果与全样本结果基本一致。在人口快速老龄化背景下探索老年流动人口的长期定居意愿及内在机制,积极实现配套实施的完善,为有效应对人口老龄化、保障老年流动人口基本权益以及维系流动家庭的和谐稳定,具有重要意义。

In order to explore the impact factors of old long - term settle willingness, this paper makes an empirical research on the old floating people＇ s settle willingness based on successful aging. Successful aging is divided into three dimensions, including economic dimension, social attendance dimension and health dimension. The old floating people＇ s settle willingness is set as dependent variable, while basic demographic characteristics and migration characteristics are set as covariant variables. Independent variables are added into the regression model one by one in the order of economic dimension, social attendance dimension and health dimension. Empirical research results are coincidence with hypotheses. The old floating people＇ s settle willingness is strongly significant with all the three dimensions. Higher the income is, more likely to attend social activity, better physical condition is, stronger willingness the old floating people hold. This paper takes further robustness tests sorted by recurrent reasons and residence type in order to exam the significance of related variables. Robustness tests results are coincide with the whole sample. With the development of rapidly population aging, exploring old floating people＇ s long - term settle willingness and intrinsic mechanism, improving affiliated facilities, is of great importance for challenging population aging, guaranteeing basic rights for old floating people and promoting families＇ harmony and happiness.