农业气象谚语在汛期降水气候预测的应用

Application of Agrometeorological Proverbs in the Climate Prediction of Precipitation in Flood Seasons

选取"冬暖春寒夏雨多"("冬寒春暖夏雨少")、"冬至一场风夏至一场暴"和"初雷百日雨"等谚语作为检验对象,通过对台山历史气象资料进行统计分析,检验有关谚语的可用性。结果显示:谚语"冬暖春寒夏雨多"对台山不适用,但"冬寒春暖夏雨少"可用,若严重冬寒年遇上ELnino年,则来年夏季降水可能出现气候极值;谚语"冬至一场风夏至一场暴"对于夏季中雨和大雨长期预报有一定参考价值;谚语"初雷百日雨"对于夏季降水长期预报有较好的参考价值。由此提出了在农业生产上趋利避害的相应建议,力求为夏季降水提供短期气候预测依据,为农业生产提供更加准确的农用天气与气象灾害预报服务,促进三农事业发展。

Some proverbs like ＂More rains fall in summer when it is warm in winter and cold in spring＂, ＂Less rainfall in summer follows a cold winter and a warm spring＂, ＂A storm in winter solstice indicates a rainstorm in summer＂ and ＂First thunder is followed by a hundred days of rain＂ were chosen to verify their practical applicability in Taishan based on a statistical analysis of historical meteorological data in Taishan, Guangdong, China. The results showed that the proverb ＂More rains fall in summer when it is warm in winter and cold in spring＂ was not applicable to Taishan, but the proverb ＂Less rainfall in summer follows a cold winter and a warm spring＂ was applicable to Taishan and that the rainfall might be the highest in summer if a very cold winter comes with the year of EL Nino. The proverb ＂A storm in winter solstice indicated a rainstorm in summer＂ and provided some references for the long-term forecast of moderate rain and heavy rain. The proverb ＂First thunder is followed by a hundred days of rain＂ had a good reference for the long term prediction of precipitation process in summer. In this context some suggestions for the good of agricultural production were put forward in order to provide the basis of short-term climate prediction of precipitation in flood seasons and provide accurate agro-meteorological weather and disaster weather forecast service for the agricultural production.