汇率波动、资本项目开放与货币国际化——国际经验与启示

Exchange Rate Volatility,Capital Account Openness and Currency Internationalization: International Experience and Enlightenment

依据21种世界主要货币在国际债券计价货币中的使用份额,将其分为已国际化货币、待国际化货币和未国际化货币3类,利用面板模型考察资本项目开放与汇率波动对货币国际化的综合影响。研究表明,资本项目开放能够明显推动货币国际化进程,但在考虑汇率波动时,资本项目开放的促进效应有所弱化,并且汇率波动越大,资本项目开放的边际效应越小。汇率波动对资本项目开放边际效应的影响在待国际化货币中不显著,在未国际化货币中显著。因此,在人民币国际化初始阶段,适度控制汇率波动幅度有助于发挥资本项目开放对货币国际化的促进效应。

Based on the use of 21 major currencies in the money of account of international bond, this paper divides them into internationalized currency, incompletely internationalized cur- rencies and potentially internationalized currencies. Panel model is used to analyze the impact of capital account openness and exchange rate volatility on the internationalization of currency. The results show that capital account openness can obviously promote currency internationalization However, by taking exchange rate volatility into consideration, the promotion effect of capital ac- count openness is weakened. Besides, the more exchange rate fluctuates, the smaller marginal effect of capital account openness. The impact of exchange rate volatility on the marginal effect of capital account openness is insignificant in incompletely internationalized currencies, while the impact is significant in potentially internationalized currencies. Therefore, at the beginning stage of RMB internationalization, appropriately control the volatility of exchange rate is conducive to bringing the promotion effect of capital account openness on currency internationalization.