金融结构与产业结构的非线性转换效应——基于PSTR模型的实证检验

The Nonlinear Conversion Relationship between Financial Structure and Industrial Structure: Empirical Test Based on PSTR Model

中国经济正由高速增长转向高质量发展,提高直接融资比重,促进金融结构市场化是新时期产业结构升级与增长方式转型的必由之路。使用2001~2015年中国省际面板数据,利用PSTR模型对金融结构与产业结构之间的非线性关系进行实证检验。研究发现:金融结构市场化对产业结构的升级效应会随着经济发展水平、技术进步水平与市场化水平等转换变量,在高、低区制之间进行平滑转换;只有当地区经济发展水平、技术水平以及制度环境达到一定程度,金融结构市场化导向的增强才能够显著促进产业结构升级;由于中国区域间发展水平差距较大,金融结构市场化的产业结构升级效应具有较大的区域异质性。

China＇ s economy is shifting from high - speed growth to high - quality development. Increasing the proportion of direct finance and promoting the marketization of financial structure are the key ways to upgrade the industrial structure and transform the growth mode in the new era. Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2015 in China, this paper uses the panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to empirically examine the nonlinear relationship between finan- cial structure and industrial structure. The results show that the upgrading effect of the marketization of financial structure on the industrial structure along with the changes of transition variables, transits smoothly between the high and low regimes such as economic development, technological pro- gress, and marketization. Only when the regional economic development, technological progress and institutional environment reach a certain level, can the enhancement of the market - orientation of financial structure significantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure. Due to the large gap in development level between regions in China, the industrial structure upgrading effect of the marketization of financial structure have great regional heterogeneity