基于灰色线性回归组合模型的我国家用陶瓷出口预测研究

Forecast of Domestic Ceramics Export Based on a Grey Linear Regression Combined Model——The first paper in series article of the grey combined model

对我国家用陶瓷出口进行准确预测，是有关部门制定政策的重要依据，也是家用陶瓷行业开发国际市场的重要参考．由于家用陶瓷出口是一个信息不完全的灰色系统，仅用单一模型进行预测，往往效果不佳．通过构建灰色线性回归组合模型，对我国家用陶瓷出口量进行预测．研究表明，该组合模型具有较高的预测精度，克服了单一模型缺陷，能用于对家用陶瓷出口预测研究．最后，根据预测结果，分析了我国家用陶瓷出口增长所遇到的制约与瓶颈．

Forecast of domestic ceramics export is one of the main bases for the work of relevant government departments. At the same time, it＇s also an important guarantee for Domestic ceramics＇ enterprises to win the future. Domestic ceramics export system is a gray system with incomplete information. This grey linear regression combined model is used to forecast the domestic ceramics export of China. The results indicated that the combined model has higher prediction accuracy, overcomes the defects of single model. The forecast results are more reliable which shows high practical value. Finally, according to the prediction results, The paper analyzes the constraints and bottlenecks encountered in the growth of China＇s domestic ceramics export.