基于典型日法的微电网可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Microgrid Based on Typical Daily Method

随着化石燃料的枯竭,以风能、太阳能为代表的新能源发电已经越来越成为大势所趋,但其间歇性、出力不稳定性的缺点会大大影响电力系统的稳定性。文中对单独的风能、光能发电进行建模分析,通过蒙特卡洛抽样验证了风能和光能分别符合Weibull和Beta分布;最后对含风能、光能的微电网发电系统进行分析,通过典型日法来模拟一个季节的出力情况,对可靠性指标缺电时间期望(loss of load expectation,LOLE)、电量不足期望(loss of energy expectation,LOEE)进行评估。仿真结果表明含太阳能、风能并行发电的微电网系统稳定性有明显提高。

With the depletion of fossil fuels,the new energy generation,which is represented by wind and solar energy,has become more and more important,but the shortcomings of its intermittency and output instability will greatly affect the stability of the power system.The modeling and analysis of the separate wind and photovoltaic power generation were carried out.Through Monte Carlo sampling,it was verified that wind energy and light energy conformed to the distribution of Weibull and Beta respectively.Finally,the microgrid generation system with wind and light energy was analyzed,and a typical daily method was used to simulate the output of a season,and the loss of load expectation and the loss of energy expectation were evaluated.The simulation results showed that the stability of microgrid system with parallel generation of solar and wind energy had been significantly improved.