昆明主要森林可燃物含水率预测模型的研究

Study on moisture content prediction model of surface fuels in principal stands, Kunming

为了探究可燃物含水率的研究方法,以利于森林火灾监测系统的完善,于2016年当地防火期内进行,通过对昆明地区6块样地可燃物含水率的监测,同时收集样地相关的气象因子数据,建立气象要素回归模型,并评估其预测精度。结果表明:在自建模型中,死可燃物的预测模型适用性更好,活可燃物其含水率变化可能并不是单一的只受客观因素的影响,其自身的生命活动也会影响到其含水率的变化,使得含水率的研究更加复杂;坡向对含水率变化的影响并不明显;而对于模型外推,通过有限的20组数据对预测模型进行验证,对于死可燃物普遍表现出不错的适用效果,证明了模型有一定的使用意义。

In order to explore the research methods of combustibles moisture content, and to facilitate the improvement of forest fire monitoring system, this study was conducted in local fire prevention period, 2016, by monitoring six pieces of sample of fuel moisture content in Kunming area, and collecting data and related meteorological factors in the model, the forecast model of dead fuel better applicability, living fuel its moisture content changes may not be a single only by objective factors, the influence of its own life activity will also affect the change of moisture content, makes the study of the moisture content is more complicated. The effect of slope to change of moisture content is not obvious; For extrapolation of the model, the prediction model is verified through the limited data of 20 sets of data, and it is proved that the model has certain use meaning for the dead combustible.