基于游客环境属性意愿支付的游憩承载力评价研究

Assessing tourism carrying capacity in the national forest park based on visitor’s willingness to pay for the environmental attributes

游憩承载力是衡量国家森林公园利用限度的一个重要指标.然而,游憩承载力的内涵和度量方法在学术界尚未形成一个统一的认知.已有的研究多以社会承载力和工程方法测算单位时间内景区允许进入游客的数量.这种做法虽然在管理上具有一定的可操作性,但却不能准确反映承载力概念的科学内涵.文章从旅游效用最大化视角出发,构建基于景区环境属性水平的游憩承载力理论框架,并估计各种属性的承载力阈值.研究过程运用选择实验法进行问卷设计和条件logit模型进行参数估计.模型结果表明,植被覆盖率承载力阈值为78%,垃圾数量承载力阈值为3件/20 m,游客密度承载力阈值为14人/200 m^2,水的能见度承载力阈值为1.45 m.

Recreational carrying capacity（RCC） is one of the most important indictors used in measuring the use limit of the forest park resource. However, the consensus has not been reached with respect to its connotation and measuring metrics in the academic circles. The vast majority of the RCC studies in existing literature are focused on the social carrying capacity and physical-engineering aspects only,which are commonly presented by the maximum number of tourists allowed to entry the park site during a specific time period（yearly or daily）. Nevertheless, to some degree, this measurement partially deviates the underlying RCC concept because of the fact that the RCC composes of multitude elements, including but not limited to the factors such as natural, social, economic and cultural. In this paper, we try to establish a new RCC theoretical framework based on recreation utility maximization theory, product characteristic theory and the park environmental attributes. In the process, the choice experiment（CE） and orthogonal design methods are used for questionnaire design following by utilizing the conditional Logit model for parameter estimates. A total of more than 700 park visitors to the Shenyang National Forest park of Liaoning province in China were interviewed for data collection. The survey questionnaire was focused on those park attribute questions such as vegetation, coverage, water quality, number of rubbishes along the park trail path, admission fees, and park management such as crowding, etc. The results indicate that the sequential order of tourist＇s preferences over those recognized environmental attributes are as follows：vegetation coverage, density of visitors, visibility through the water, number of rubbish and admission fees.Of which the threshold for the carrying capacity of vegetation coverage is 78%; the amount of garbage,3/20 m; the density of tourists, 14/200 m^2; and visibility through the water 1.45 m, respectively. Based on these research findings, related policy and management implications are addressed accordingly.