基于出行者路径选择行为的VMS诱导策略研究

Research on VMS inducing strategy based on the route selection behavior of travelers

针对现有交通诱导系统片面地确定可变信息板（VMS）位置和发布内容的弊端,提出系统性确定符合路网出行需求的VMS诱导策略的方法,该方法从交通管理者对系统建设成本的限制和出行者的路径决策心理出发,建立综合考虑两者期望的双层规划模型.其中上层模型考虑交通管理者对网络总效益的期望和对VMS建设成本的约束,下层模型根据出行者在VMS诱导下的转向概率,运用符合出行者路径选择心理的随机动态交通分配模型,并设计了求解算法.应用表明,在不同的系统建设成本约束下、网络总出行成本是网络交通需求水平、出行者的转向概率、VMS的布设位置、交通诱导信息的发布周期和内容等的组合结果,因此求解保证网络总出行成本最低的VMS诱导策略时需要同时考虑以上因素.研究结论可为城市交通管理VMS诱导决策提供理论支持.

In view of the disadvantages of the existing traffic guidance system to determine the position and the issue of variable message signs（VMS） unilaterally, a systematic method is proposed to determine the VMS inducing strategy at a certain level of demand in the road network. The method establishes a bi-level programming model considering both of the restriction of the system construction cost and the path decision mentality of the traveler. The upper model considering the traffic management expectations for the overall benefit of the network and the constraint on the construction cost of VMS, the lower model uses stochastic dynamic traffic assignment model that accords with traveler＇s path choice psychology. It is shown by application that the total network travel cost is a combination of network traffic demand,probability of path transformation, location of VMS settings, release cycle and content of traffic guidance information in different constraint of the construction cost of the system, so we need to consider both the above factors when explore VMS guidance strategy that ensure that the overall travel costs of the network is the lowest. The research results will offer the theoretical support for the decision making of the traffic management department.