叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响

Effects of Climate Change on Grain Production in Plain Oasis in the Yarkant River Basin

为分析叶尔羌河流域粮食生产状况及其对气候变化的响应,利用气象、农业数据,结合线性趋势、累积距平、突变分析等方法,分析近60多年来研究区的气候变化特征及其对农业气候资源、粮食播种面积、粮食单产的影响,并构建多元线性回归方程模拟预测未来粮食产量的变化。结果表明：（1）近60多年来研究区表现出明显的暖湿化趋势。气温增长倾向率为0.24℃·（10a）^-1（P〈0.01）,降水量增湿倾向率为4.49 mm·（10a）^-1（P〈0.05）,日照时数呈减小趋势,倾向率为21.06 h·（10a）^-1。气温在1996年发生突变,降水量、日照时数未出现明显突变点。（2）随着气候变暖,近60多年≥10℃积温持续时间延长了19 d,负积温持续时间缩短了8 d。（3）除负积温外,粮食产量与气温、日照时数、≥10℃积温、播种面积及单产、化肥施用量呈正相关。（4）多元回归模型显示,在不考虑其他要素的前提下,引入的7个自变量因子可以解释粮食产量变异的99.70%。气候变化在一定程度上有利于粮食播种面积的扩大和单产的提高。

In order to analyze the grain production situation in the study area and its response to climate change,the meteorological and agricultural data were used to analyze the climate change in recent 60 years and its effect on agricultural climate resources,sown area and per unit area yield with the linear trend,cumulative anomaly and mutation method,and a multiple linear regression equation was developed to predict the future changes in grain yield for guiding scientific farming and better serving the agricultural ecosystem. The results are as follows：（1） Over the past60 years,an obvious warming-wetting trend occurred in the study area. The temperature and precipitation increase rates were 0. 24 ℃ ·（ 10 a）^-1（ P 0. 01） and 4. 49 mm·（ 10 a）^-1（ P 0. 05） respectively,but the sunshine duration decreased with a decrease rate of 21. 06 h·（ 10 a）^-1. The temperature mutation occurred in 1996,but there were no obvious mutations in precipitation and sunshine duration;（2） With climate warming,the duration of cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ increased by 19 d,but that of negative one shortened by 8 d;（3） In addition to the negative cumulative temperature,the grain yield was positively correlated with air temperature,sunshine duration,cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃,sown area,per unit area yield and applying quantity of chemical fertilizer;（4） The multiple regression model revealed that 7 independent variable factors could be used to explain the 99. 70% grain yield variation without considering other factors. Climate change is conducive to expanding grain sown area and increasing per unit area yield to a certain extent.