甘肃省农业现代化水平测度及制约因子研究

Measurement of agricultural modernization level and diagnosis of restrictive factors in Gansu Province

农业的根本出路在于现代化,农业现代化是国家现代化的基础和支撑。推动农业现代化进程对于确保国家粮食安全与乡村振兴取得决定性进展具有重要意义。基于农业生产投入、农业产出水平、农村社会经济发展和农业生态环境质量等4个维度,构建了农业现代化测度指标体系,利用综合指数法测度甘肃省1990—2015年农业现代化水平,借助约束度公式对现代化进程的制约因子进行诊断分析。结果表明:甘肃省农业现代化发展水平得到长足的提升,1990年农业现代化综合指数仅为0.124,处于准备阶段;2011年进入现代化起步阶段,并呈现出稳步上升趋势;至2015年,农业现代化综合指数提升到0.479,正处于起步阶段向初步实现阶段的过渡期,但现代化整体水平较低。其中,农业生产投入现代化基本实现,农业产出水平尚处于起步阶段,农村社会经济发展依然徘徊在准备阶段,农业生态环境治理任重道远。农业产出水平、农业生产投入、农村社会经济发展和农业生态环境质量4个子系统对甘肃农业现代化水平的约束度分别为57.53%、15.99%、15.16%和11.31%;农业产出增长率、水土流失治理、化肥施用量和农村居民家庭经营收入成为制约农业现代化进程的4个关键因子,农业持续发展动力不足。因此,提出培育新型农业经营主体,构建新型农业经营体系,推动农业转型升级发展;培养多元化农村产业融合主体,推动农产品生产由第一产业向三产融合发展转变;以"两山"理念指引农业的常态发展向绿色、创新式发展转变等推动甘肃农业现代化进程的政策建议。

The fundamental development direction of agriculture in China is agricultural modernization, which is also the foundation and support of national modernization. Promoting the development of agricultural modernization is of great significance to ensure the critical progress of national food security and rural revitalization. Applying the comprehensive index method, this paper constructed a measurement index system, including 4 dimensions： agricultural production input, agricultural output level, rural socioeconomic development, and agricultural ecological environment quality, and evaluated the agricultural modernization level of Gansu Province from 1990 to 2015. In addition, this paper also analyzed the constraint factors of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province by using the constraint degree formula. Results showed that： the development level of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province had been greatly improved. In 1990, the comprehensive index of agricultural modernization was only 0.124, in the preparation period. In 2011, it entered into the initial stage and showed a steady growing trend. By 2015, the comprehensive index had increased to 0.479, which was in the transitional period from the initial to the preliminary realization stage. However, the overall level of modernization was still low. The modernization of agricultural production input was basically achieved and the agricultural output level was in the initial stage. While the rural socioeconomic development was still in the preparation stage and still a long way to go for agricultural ecological environment governance. In 2015,the constraints of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province mainly concentrated on the agricultural output level, with constraint degree of 57.53%, followed by agricultural production input, rural socioeconomic development, and agricultural ecological environment quality, and the constraint degrees were 15.99%, 15.16% and 11.31% respectively. This paper also identified four main factors constraining the sustainable development of agricultural modernization, including the output growth rate, soil erosion control, fertilizer application, and household operating income of rural residents. In summary, this paper also proposed the following policy suggestions to promote the sustainable development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province： cultivating new agricultural business entities, building new agricultural business system to promote agricultural transformation and upgrading, enhancing diversified rural industrial integration entities to promote the transformation of agricultural production from the first industry to the convergence of three industries, and promoting the transformation from normal agricultural development to green and innovative development under the guidance of the ＂Two Mountains＂ theory.