贸易开放下大麦进口价格对中国啤酒进出口的影响——基于空间面板模型的实证研究

The influence of barley import price on China's beer trade with trade liberalization:An empirical study based on the spatial panel data model

分析大麦进口价格对中国啤酒贸易的影响,对降低大麦进口依存度、增强啤酒国际竞争力、缓解啤酒进口压力等方面具有重要意义。基于中国大麦进口及啤酒进出口贸易的分析,借助地区固定效应空间杜宾模型,研究了2001—2015年大麦进口价格等因素对中国啤酒进出口量的影响。结果表明,中国大麦进口量持续增加,进口市场集中度较高;中国大麦的贸易竞争力指数均值为-0.98,国际竞争力极弱。中国啤酒进口量增幅较大,出口量增长缓慢,出口市场结构的稳定性差;中国啤酒的贸易竞争力指数均值为-0.42,国际竞争力弱。中国啤酒进口的空间负相关性显著,澳大利亚大麦进口CNF价格对中国啤酒进口产生显著正影响,影响大小仅次于出口国GDP和中国人均GDP;中国啤酒出口的空间正相关性显著,澳大利亚大麦进口CNF价格对中国啤酒出口产生显著负影响,但影响较小。因此,提高国内大麦产量、提升大麦产业链各环节之间的联系、加强大麦贸易宏观调控是本文的政策启示所在。

Analyzing the impact of barley import price on China＇s beer trade is of great significance for reducing barley import dependence, enhancing international competitiveness of beer and alleviating beer import pressure. Based on the import and export data of China＇s barley and beer from 2001 to 2015 and applying the regional fixed effect Spatial Durbin Model, this paper analyzed the influencing factors of barley imports and beer trade. Results show that barley import has been increasing continuously, and the concentration degree of import market was high. The mean value of barley＇s trade competition index was-0.98, and the international competitiveness of China＇s barley was weak. China＇s beer import was also increasing significantly. However, China＇s beer export growth was slow with an unstable export market. The mean value of beer＇s trade competition index was-0.42, and the international competitiveness of China＇s beer was weak. China＇s beer import volume increased rapidly and showed a significant negative spatial correlation in China＇s beer import model. Import price of Australian barley had a significant positive impact on China＇s beer import and barley price had less influence than that of the GDP of the exporting country and China＇s per capita GDP. This research also found that there was a significant positive spatial correlation in China＇s beer export model. The import price of Australian barley had a significant negative impact on the export of China＇s beer, but its influence on China＇s beer export was insignificant. Policy implications of this paper include increasing the yield of domestic barley, improving the linkages among the barley industry chains and strengthening the macro-control of barley trade.