我国地方政府性债务风险评价研究——基于资产负债视角

Local Government Debt Risk Evaluation Research in China——A Perspective of Assets and Liabilities

在经济新常态和供给侧改革背景下,如何评价和控制地方债务杠杆风险的扩大是地方政府去杠杆的核心任务。本文通过分析我国地方政府资产负债管理的现状,划分了地方政府性债务风险;在此基础上,通过AHP层次分析法初步构建了地方政府性债务风险评价体系并加以应用,结果显示,结构风险和流动性风险是当前地方政府性债务的显著风险点,规模风险并没有集中凸显。据此为地方政府性债务的价值管理提出建议。

In the context of the new economic normal and supply-side reform,how to evaluate and control the expansion of local debt leverage risk is the core task of local government deleveraging. This paper analyzes the current situation of local government assets and liabilities management in China. The risk of local government debt is divided. Based on the AHP analytic hierarchy process,the local government debt risk assessment system is constructed and applied. The results show that structural risk and liquidity risk are the significant risk points of local government debt. The scale risk is not focused. Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the value management of local government debt.