基于密度依赖模型的组织出生和组织死亡同向变动研究

The same direction change relation research of founding and failure of organization based on Density dependence Model

经典密度依赖理论认为:在同一时间段,组织的出生率和死亡率会呈现反向变动的趋势。文章观察到了组织出生率和死亡率同向变动的现象。从密度依赖模型的出生率和死亡率函数出发,文章先从理论上推导组织设立和组织死亡同向变动的条件,再结合实际观察到的1993年-2017年广州市外资制造业企业出生和死亡现象展开讨论。结果发现:(1)当组织死亡率大于0,组织设立率小于0时,如果t时刻的密度小于出生率函数的密度系数除以两倍密度平方值系数的负数;组织年龄为u时的组织密度又大于死亡率函数的密度系数除以两倍密度平方值系数,就会出现组织死亡函数增长时,组织设立函数同时增加的现象;(2)1993年-2017年广州市外资制造业组织设立和组织死亡函数的变化趋势大致相同,也与文章理论上的数学推导大体保持一致;(3)组织死亡率、组织出生率和组织密度形成一定组合时,组织设立函数和组织死亡函数并不呈现反向关系,反而会出现同时增加或者同时减少的同向变动现象。

The classical Density dependence model assumes that the founding of organization change inversely to the failure of organization over the same period. When the failure rate of the organization increase,the organizations that try to enter the organizational population will decrease,and vice versa. However,are there any circumstances that organization birth rate change in the same direction with the organization death rate？ Starting with the founding rate and failure rate function of Density Dependence Model,this article deduces the conditions when founding and failure of organization move in the same direction. And then use the sample data of manufacturing company in Guangzhou foreign capital manufacturing industry to do the empirical analysis. The results indicate that,(1） When the failure rate of organization is larger than zero and the founding rate is lower than zero,then if the organization density at time t is smaller than the negative number of the parameter of density in founding rate function divided by double the number of the parameter of density square. Meanwhile,the density of organization at ageu is larger than the parameter of density in failure rate function divided by twofold of the parameter of density square. Then the founding of organization will go up when the failure of organization rise.(2） The founding and failure of organization in Guangzhou foreign capital manufacturing industry has similar changing tendency during 1993 to 2017. It also in line with the theoretical analysis of this research.(3） When the failure rate of organization,the founding rate of organization and organization density form a certain combination,the founding and failure of organization will change in the same direction,but not inversely. This paper contributes to the literature in the following ways. First, this paper provides a newperspective for the research of Density Dependence Model,break through the conventional wisdom about the variation trend of organization founding rate and failure rate. Thus,enrich the existing organizational ecology research. Second,using data of Guangzhou foreign capital manufacturing population over period 1993-2017 and based on the mathematical derivation,this paper proves the same direction change relation of organization birth and death. Finally,this study shows the reason why there is same direction change relation between the founding rate and the death rate of organization. The death of the organization may release resources to the population,so that existing organizations in the population will get newresources and raise ability to survive. Smaller reductions in resources that population may obtain will urge organizational population to develop and use resources more efficiently. An excess of resources may lower the importance of efficiency and then do harm to the live of organizational population. As a result,the founding rate will growwhen the death rate ascend and reduce while the death rate is on the decline.