科技期刊行业发展景气指数研究

Climate index of scientific journal industry development

【目的】提出反映科技期刊行业宏观发展趋势的科技期刊景气指数,以综合监测、评估、预测科技期刊行业运行动态。【方法】借鉴宏观经济学理论,采用合成指数编制原理,考虑科技期刊行业政策、收益、从业者、学术质量等多维指标,编制科技期刊景气指数,并基于1999—2016年国家统计局、新闻出版总署统计年报、《中国科技期刊引证报告》等多源事实型数据对我国科技期刊行业发展景气指数进行实证研究。【结果】目前,中国科技期刊行业发展景气指数仍处于上行周期,仅增速出现波动。经过多阶段的快速提升,行业景气指数迈上新的台阶,并将继续保持扩张趋势。【结论】景气指数能够反映科技期刊行业发展的实际,可以为行业发展景气程度的评估预测提供参考。

[Purposes] This paper proposes a climate index of scientific journals that reflects the macro development trend of the industry of scientific journals,to monitor,evaluate,and predict the dynamics of scientific journal industry. [Methods] Based on the macro-economic theory and the principle of composite index compilation,we built the climate index by considering the multiindicators of industry policies,income,practitioners,and academic quality. Based on the statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics,the State Administration of Press and Publication,and Chinese ST Journal Citation Reports from 1999 to 2016,an empirical study was conducted on the development index of scientific journal industry in China. [Findings] The scientific journal industry is still in an upward cycle,and only the growth rate fluctuates. After a multi-stage development,the industry prosperity index has reached a newlevel and will continue to maintain its expansion trend. [Conclusions] The climate index can provide the required information for the assessment of the development of scientific journal industry.