充填管道磨损变权-模糊风险评估模型

Weight-variation-fuzzy model for assessing wear risk of backfilling pipeline and its application

为准确评估充填管道磨损风险,基于变权理论、集对分析和三角模糊数理论,建立变权-模糊多维评估模型。首先建立风险评估指标体系,采用变权理论确定指标权重;利用集对分析构建评估指标的多元联系数表达式,并引入三角模糊数对差异度系数进行区间表示;然后计算综合联系数,从而得到风险评估等级;最后通过实例验证模型的有效性,并对三山岛金矿充填管道磨损风险进行评估。结果表明：三山岛金矿充填管道磨损风险等级为磨损风险一般（Ⅲ级）,人工假底构筑时充填管道磨损风险最大;所建立模型评估结果与现场实际相符,并可从多维角度评估充填管道磨损风险。

To accurately assess the wear risk of backfilling pipeline,a variable-weight-fuzzy multidimensional evaluation model was built on the basis of the variable weights theory,set pair analysis and triangular fuzzy number theory. For building the model,an index system for risk assessment was established and the weights of evaluation samples were determined by variable weights theory. Set pair analysis was used to construct a multi-contact number expression of the evaluation index and triangular fuzzy number was introduced to express the interval representation of the otherness coefficient. The number of integrated connections was calculated to get the risk assessment level. The validity of the model was verified by an example and the wear risk of the backfilling pipeline in the Sanshandao gold mine was evaluated. The results show that the wear risk grade of the backfilling pipeline is grade Ⅲ（general wear）and the wear risk of the backfilling pipeline is the biggest when the artificial floor is under construction in the Sanshandao gold mine,and that the outcomes of this model are in agreement with the reality and the risk of backfilling pipeline can be assessed from a multidimensional angle.