中国碳生产率减排目标分配机制研究--基于不同环境责任界定视角

Provincial Carbon Productivity Target Allocation Plan in China:Producer and Consumer Responsibility

全球化和区域经济一体化已经引起产业分工的深度和广度不断扩大,跨地区的中间产品贸易发展迅速,产品的生产和消费环节在地理位置上分离,因此生产和消费相关的碳排放可以根据产品贸易进行转移,这就意味着不同碳排放责任下的核算,以及基于此制定的省级减排目标(如碳强度和碳生产率目标)的分配将对各省产生不同成本效益和环境责任。本文采用投入产出方法,建立多区域间投入产出模型,分析我国国内贸易和国际贸易中的隐含碳,并与目标优化方法相结合,估计各省在不同环境责任下的减排成本和减排目标调整。结果表明,消费者责任核算能够兼顾效率和公平,将欠发达地区的生产排放责任适当的分配到最终消费的较发达的消费地区,有利于减少区域间碳泄漏,提高欠发达地区的经济竞争力。碳生产率目标强调在能源效率方面重新规划减排目标,并进一步改善欠发达地区的能源效率。政策制定者可以根据能源效率和单位减排成本来分配和增加投资,并随之提高减排效率。最后根据结论提出政策建议。

Globalization and regional economic integration has caused the expansion of depth and breadth in industrial division. Due to the rapid development of interregional intermediate products trade and the geographical separation of production and consumption,the production and consumption-related emissions can be transferred with products trade,which means that the accounting of carbon emissions under different responsibilities,as well as the provincial emission reduction targets based on it(such as targets of carbon intensity and carbon productivity） will have different impact of cost-effectiveness and environmental responsibility on provinces. Based on the input-output method,this paper develops a multi-regional input-output model to analyze the embodied carbon in domestic and international trade in China. Furthermore,combined with the objective optimization method,this paper estimates the provincial abatement costs and adjustment of provincial emission reduction targets under different environmental responsibilities. The results indicate that the accounting under consumer responsibility can reconcile efficiency and equity,and appropriately transfer the responsibility for production emissions in less developed regions to developed regions,thus reducing the interregional carbon leakage and improving the economic competitiveness in less developed regions. In addition,the carbon productivity target emphasizes the re-planning of emission reduction target according to energy efficiency,and to further improve the energy efficiency in less developed regions. Policy makers can allocate and increase investment according to energy efficiency and unit abatement cost,improving the efficiency of emissions reduction. Finally,policy recommendations are proposed based on our conclusions.