从供给侧探寻我国就业变化成因

Exploring the Determinants of Employment Changes from the Supply Side

在坚定不移推进供给侧结构性改革的背景下,从供给侧探寻我国就业人数变化的影响因素具有重要的现实意义。本文从供给侧出发,利用投入产出Ghosh模型和结构分解分析方法,将各部门就业变化定量分解为技术发展因素、经济总量增长因素和经济结构变化因素,其中经济结构变化包括分配结构调整和增加值结构变化。结果表明,经济总量增长与就业密切相关,对各部门就业增长有着重要的积极作用,经济增速的放缓将对就业造成不小的压力。技术进步使得劳动生产率得以提高,加大了各部门的失业风险,与此同时,技术进步和科技革命加快了经济结构的调整,2002-2007年,经济结构变化主要对第二产业就业带来积极影响,2007-2012年,这种积极影响则转向第三产业,说明我国在经济转型过程中就业需求已逐渐向第三产业的生产性和生活性服务业转移。

Since China has been promoting supply-side reform determinedly,it is particularly important for us to explore the determinants of employment changes from the supply side. This paper,from the supply side,decomposes the determinants of employment into technological development factor,economic growth factor and economic structure factor,using Ghosh’s ‘supply-driven’input-output model and structural decomposition techniques. The results suggest that economic growth and employment growth are closely related,and the slow-down in economic growth would bring pressure on employment growth. The technological development improves labor productivity,but also increases the risk of unemployment. Meanwhile,technological development has accelerated the adjustment of economic structure.In 2002-2007,the adjustment of economic structure had a positive impact on the employment of secondary industries. In 2007-2012,this positive impact turned to the tertiary industries,which means the demand for employment in China has gradually transferred to service industries with economic transition.