中国对美国贸易反制措施的效果评价--基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的研究

Impact of China's Trade Countermeasures on the United States:A Study Based on the Non-competitive Input-occupancy-output Model

随着中美经贸关系的不断深化,双边贸易为两国经济发展带来了巨大好处。然而,新总统特朗普上台以来,美国贸易保护主义出现升温迹象,使得中美贸易形势面临着严峻的挑战。美国无论是全面提高对华进口商品关税,还是更加频繁地挑起贸易摩擦,都将对中国经济和就业造成严重的负面影响。面对可能的贸易保护主义加剧,中国应及早做好应对准备。本文给出了中国可对美国采取的四种贸易反制措施,包括整体减少对美进口的全面反制措施,以及三种非对称性反制措施——减少美国波音飞机订单、减少美国大豆进口和限制赴美旅游人数,并基于美国2015年非竞争型投入占用产出表测算了四种反制措施对美国经济和就业的影响。最终,结合反制措施效果和可行性分析,本文认为,中国对美国贸易反制应着力于重点产品和重点领域,而不适合开展全面反击。

The rapid development of economic and trade relations has brought huge benefits to China and the US. However,as the new US president took office,Sino-US trade is facing severe challenges. Chinese economy and employment status may suffer substantial negative impacts if the United States raises tariffs extensively,or provokes more frequent trade frictions. China should prepare itself well for the potential aggravation of trade protectionist sentiment. This paper analyzes four actionable trade countermeasures against the United States,including reducing imports of all US goods and services,cutting orders for Boeing airplanes,reducing imports of US soybeans and restricting the number of Chinese tourists to the US. These countermeasures’ impacts on US economy and employment are measured using the US non-competitive input-occupancy-output table in 2015. Considering the impacts and feasibilities of the four countermeasures,we recommend that Chinese trade countermeasures against the United States should focus on some key products rather than aim at all commodities.